"China poses much more of a threat to itself than to us."

A series of once-vibrant small shops nestled in the heart of Guangzhou now stand closed and bankrupt, a stark aftermath of the recent economic deceleration triggered by, among others, the COVID-19 pandemic.

The following is a synopsis of an interview published by the Dutch newspaper NRC on April 24, 2023. The interview features Jorg Wuttke, the chairman of the European Chamber of Commerce in China, and was authored by Garrie van Pinxteren.

Jörg Wuttke, the outgoing chairman of the European Chamber of Commerce in China, has expressed his views on China's current trajectory, comparing it to the overconfidence that marked the German Empire's historical actions. Wuttke's central observation is that China's increasing assertiveness and self-reliance could have significant implications, both for its own internal dynamics and for its relationships with other countries, particularly in the realm of business and trade.

Wuttke points out that China's approach to self-reliance and reduced dependence on foreign entities has significant implications for European businesses operating within the country. He highlights the existence of a "negative list," which outlines sectors wherein foreign investment is restricted. This has made it challenging for European companies to navigate the Chinese market.

Furthermore, Wuttke explains China's drive for self-sufficiency is motivated by the desire for greater control. The Chinese government seeks to manage its economy and markets to prevent unpredictable fluctuations, based on its experiences with stock market volatility and capital outflows in recent years. This approach, while promoting stability, could potentially limit China's economic growth potential due to its reluctance to fully embrace market dynamics.

Wuttke also raises concerns about China's investment priorities. He notes that China has heavily invested in physical infrastructure, such as buildings and transportation systems, but has not put enough emphasis on social infrastructure, including healthcare and insurance systems for its citizens. This unbalanced development could have long-term social and economic consequences for the country.

While China's growing self-reliance may not present an immediate threat to other nations, Wuttke believes that its insular policies and restrictions on foreign companies could impact its own economic performance and global standing in the long run. By choosing a path of limited engagement with the international community, China could potentially miss out on tapping into its full growth potential and risk encountering challenges in the future.

The complete and original article is in Dutch, and it can be read at this link